Irish Unification Referendum Cannot Turn Into 'Another Brexit', Analysts Warn

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."